Low expectations cloud Labour’s abysmal local-elections performance

This it has conspicuously failed to do. It has lost ground in every nation of Great Britain: England, Scotland and Wales. Particularly damning is the picture in Nuneaton, the Middle England marginal whose solid backing for the Tories last year became emblematic of Mr Miliband’s shortcomings and defeat. There the Labour-to-Conservative swing yesterday was 11 points, greater even than at the general election. Meanwhile Labour’s third place north of the border is not just a testament to the Scottish Conservatives’ superb leader, Ruth Davidson, but also to the utter failure of her rivals’ bid to win back votes from the Scottish National Party by tacking left under Mr Corbyn. And then there are the dark indications, from local patterns in the results, that Jewish voters are turning away from the party over its recent anti-Semitism scandals.

Yesterday’s elections were a triumph for the Tories, who—at the point in the cycle least favourable to them and when they are tearing themselves apart over Europe—secured not just improbable gains in England but a comeback in a part of Britain where they have long been written off. For the same reasons, Labour’s results spell doom for the party at general elections. And yet these plain facts are curiously absent from much of the news coverage of the results. All over, it seems, are phrases like “holding its ground”, “passing the test”, “messier than predicted” and “bad-but-not-disastrous” (yes, that old chestnut).

Why? Because—incompetent though it is in most respects—Labour’s leadership did a fine job of lowering expectations. Apart from one gaffe by Mr Corbyn (he said he expected to gain seats, before a spinner corrected this from a prediction to an aspiration) it consistently promoted the notion that the party would see triple-digit losses, that to expect gains would be unreasonable and that the party might lose the London mayoral election (the result of which, almost certainly a solid Labour win, is due tonight). The success of this strategy is borne out in headlines painting results that should strike fear into Labourite hearts as par-for-the-course. Emma Reynolds, one of the few moderate MPs with the guts to burst her party’s bubble, was bombarded with abuse from Corbyn supporters on social media when, this morning, she pointed out that these were “not good enough”. Labour is firmly on track to do worse at the 2020 election than it did last year. Commentary and analysis perpetuating the delusion that this is not so are doing the Conservative Party a giant favour.

Update: Since this post was published Mr Khan has, as expected, secured enough votes to become London’s new mayor. Though a poor reflection of Mr Corbyn’s electability, this will take some of the pressure off Labour’s leader. A full write-up of the result is here.