Never undervalue the second weekend of the horror film Smile from Paramount. The Parker Finn-directed and -written film has a chance to unseat Sony’s family film Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile and 20th Century Studios/New Regency/upscale Disney’s David O. Russell comedy Amsterdam for No. 1 with roughly a $11M+ take. Its $22.6M opening has shown many in town that horror remains a bankable genre for the big screen.
With a running 4-day total of $24.8M, Smile had a very successful Monday with sales of $2.2M. In contrast, Blumhouse/Black Universal’s Phone made $3M on its opening Monday in June, which is respectable.
Based on the beloved children’s book by Bernard Waber from 1965, Sony is expecting that Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile will gross between $11M and $12M at 4,300 locations. Rivals are forecasting much higher ($15M-$18M) as there’s been nothing out there for families for quite some time, however, movies that star Crocodiles (even if they are friendly) don’t necessarily create a stampede, just like movies about people getting eaten by lions (Beast). If Lyle, Lyle displays its teeth, the Javier Bardem-Constance Wu-Shawn Mendes film will have a clear path until Thanksgiving, when Disney Animation’s Strange World will be the next family-friendly release. On Thursday at 3 PM, 3,450 sites will begin previews. The $50M film (before P&A) targets mothers and children and has some PLFs.
In the past, Sony has established itself at the fall box office with family films like Hotel Transylvania (2012), Hotel Transylvania 2 (2015), and Goosebumps ($23.6M opening). Lyle, Lyle, a live-action/animated hybrid film directed by Josh Gordon and Will Speck, has not yet received any reviews.
The $80.00M New Regency Amsterdam, a Russell all-star, has a tough fight on her hands. There are bold tracking forecasts of $12–$15 million, but given the film’s 28% Rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes, look for around $10 million. Disney has struggled to find buyers for the film, which has a plot reminiscent of a Coen Brothers film. As a result, they have been promoting the movie using its impressive cast, which includes Margot Robbie, Christian Bale, John David Washington, Robert De Niro, Rami Malek, Anya Taylor Joy, Taylor Swift, Chris Rock, Michael Shannon, and Mike Myers — a murderers’ row. But this is a period piece, which is never easy at the box office (Disney’s version of The Ladykillers, a different period comedy directed by Joel and Ethan Coen and starring Tom Hanks, only managed a $12.6M start and a sub-40M domestic final in 2004), not to mention an absurdist arthouse comedy. Amsterdam is currently tracking with those over 35, but is significantly stronger with those over 45. After a $19.1 million wide release opening, Russell’s American Hustle, starring Jennifer Lawrence, Bradley Cooper, Christian Bale, and Amy Adams, held strong over Christmas (-2% with $18.7 million in its third weekend), going on to a final sum of $150.1 million and earning ten Academy Award nominations, including Best Picture. Despite the impressive cast, Amsterdam is hardly American Hustle. Amsterdam won’t be on Disney over Christmas mostly because Robbie will be starring in the historical Paramount film Babylon at that time. Disney originally planned to release Amsterdam the weekend before Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, but shifted the release date ahead after other films withdrew from the autumn season to this weekend. Additionally, Disney managed to acquire 350 Imax theatres and 400 PLFs, which will benefit the film and monetise the Russell devotees. Previews for Amsterdam begin at 6 PM and there are 3,000 cinemas booked. In addition to its high price, Amsterdam suffers from the fact that few adults are attending the fall box office. The film will be shown in 48% of all offshore territories this weekend, including the UK, Australia, Brazil, and Mexico, with the other regions being spread out throughout the balance of the season.
