FRIDAY PM: That lukewarm crowd exits and B CinemaScore is having an effect on the second weekend of Disney/Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which is presently experiencing an Astounding 71% decline with a $30M second FSS and a $7.8M second Friday, -83%. (read the review). If that estimate holds true, it will be worse than Thor: Love and Thunder’s -68% second weekend and Eternals’ -62% second weekend. By Sunday EOD, the running total would be $165.3M.
Meanwhile, Universal’s Cocaine Bear is raking in $8.1 million today in 3,534 locations, on its way to a $20 million debut (read the review). Excellent work. Let’s hope no one is creeped out by all the body parts on Friday and Saturday. Keri Russell, Matthew Rhys, and Margo Martindale reprise their roles from The Americans in this film.
Lionsgate’s Jesus Revolution, which has a perfect Rotten Tomatoes audience score, is expected to earn $6.6 million today (including $3.3 million in previews) and a very respectable $13.5 million at 2,475 locations (read the review). Is the distributor working on another I Can Only Imagine? Both films were co-directed by Jon Erwin. That 2018 film grossed $83.4 million domestically, with a 4.8 multiple of $17.1 million. AMC led in ticket sales for Jesus Revolution (26%), with Regal close behind at 23% and Cinemark third at 18%.
The 11th Friday of 20th Century Fox/Disney/Avatar: Lightstorm’s The Way of Water is $938K (-32%), with a weekend of $4.25M (-47%), and a running total of $664.8M. (read the review).
The 10th Friday of Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at 2,840 locations is aiming for $850K, for a 3-day total of $3.9M, -27%, and a running total of $173.2M.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Universal’s campy R-rated genre film Elizabeth Banks’ Cocaine Bear grossed $2 million in previews at 3,000 cinemas last night, which began at 5 p.m.
On a weekend that is expected to be dominated by Disney/Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania with an anticipated $40M (-62%), the $30M films is expected to perform in the high teens, drawing in guys (62% last night) and the 18-34 demographic (who showed up at 72%) at 3,534 theatres.
Any over-indexing would be a surprise. The film has already received favorable reviews, with 82% from Rotten Tomatoes audiences, four stars from ComScore and Screen Engine’s PostTrak, and 72% from reviewers. M3GAN, Uni/winter Blumhouse’s horror smash, received a 94% fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes reviewers, a 78% rating from the aggregator site’s audiences, a B CinemaScore, and 3 1/2 stars on PostTrak. Yesterday night’s ticket sales were greater than Universal’s Violent Night’s $1.1M previews (which debuted to $13.4M in December and stretched out to $49.8M in the US) and slightly under M3GAN’s $2.75M, which converted into an $11.7M Friday, $30.4M opening.
Cocaine Bear is based on an actual story from 1985 in which cocaine went missing in a Georgia forest when a drug runner’s plane crashed, with a black bear devouring it all. The beast goes on a rampage in the film, killing cops, criminals, and hikers. WETA was responsible for the CG production of Cokey the bear, the main character in this film.
Lionsgate is releasing Jesus Revolution, a faith-based film that already has five stars and an 85% definite recommendation on PostTrak. We learned that the studio made an estimated $2 million from Wednesday previews alone. Since Wednesday, Lionsgate has reported $940K from last night’s previews for a total of $3.3M. This Kingdom Story Company film was tracking in the single digits, but it has the potential to gross $10 million at 2,475 sites.
In the 1970s, teenage Greg Laurie (Joel Courtney) is looking for all the right things in all the wrong places – that is, until he meets Lonnie Frisbee (Jonathan Roumie), a charismatic hippie street preacher. Along with Pastor Chuck Smith (Kelsey Grammer), they open the doors of Smith’s dormant church to an unexpected resurgence of radical and fresh love, resulting in a “Jesus Revolution” as Time magazine termed it.
While Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania benefited from Presidents Day Monday, with $14.2M, discount Tuesday was less successful, with only $7M this week. Wednesday’s take was $3.8M, but yesterday’s take was only 3% lower at $3.7M, bringing the Peyton Reed-directed sequel to a $135M first week at 4,345 screens.
Avatar: The Way of Water’s Thursday for 20th Century Fox/Disney/Lightstorm was roughly a half-million, +2% for a 10th week of $9.7M at 2,675 and a running total of $660.6M.
The Oscar-nominated Puss in Boots: The Last Wish from Universal/DreamWorks Animation had an estimated $432K eighth Thursday, +3%, and a week of $8.5M for a $169.3M total.
The second Thursday of Warner Bros.’ Magic Mike’s Last Dance (see the review) brought in $405K, down 3% from Wednesday, for a second-week total of $7.6M and a running total of $20.2M from 3,034 locations.
In fifth place on Thursday, Paramount’s 80 for Brady (see the review) made $409K for a nearly $6M third week, a $34.6M running total.
